";s:4:"text";s:4985:" and I look forward to more of your writing.#22. So the 25% who have cancer that isn’t picked up by the mammogram is irrelevant since again, we’re only concerned w those who have positive results. And they gave it only about a 1-in-500 chance of shrinking by at least 2 percent, as it did” (loc. To take just one example, “in September 2011, [the forecasting firm] ECRI predicted a near certainty of a ‘double dip’ recession. Each of my articles follows the same form and is similar in length (15-20 pages). There are many reasons for this. And over and above these private decisions, prognosticating does, of course, bleed over into the public realm; as indeed whole industries from weather forecasting, to sports betting, to financial investing are built on the premise that predictions of future outcomes are not only possible, but can be made reliable. It was a pleasure to write.Very helpful. Thanks for writing it.Thanks David. We know that 10% of positives are false positives, so 90% are correct.
In addition, there is a wealth of economic data available. A Summary of ‘Inheritance: How Our Genes Change Our Lives–and Our Lives Change Our Genes’ by Sharon Moalem,#56. A Summary of ‘Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming’ by Mckenzie Funk,New Podcast: A Discussion of ‘The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies’ by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,a. Rather amusing to consider that White House predictions about the economy are the least reliable irregardless of who’s in power. It starts by looking at,Chapter 2 (“Are You Smarter Than a Television Pundit?”) discusses predictions and punditry in politics. These precise projections are derived from broader prediction intervals (though they are not often publicized as such). A Summary of ‘Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt’ by Michael Lewis,#55. I’m glad the article was a help to you.I just purchased your summary of signal versus noise and as a hyperforecaster who has many years making accurate predictions within a closed circle, I can say that you have written this summary better than the author wrote the book. Economists haven’t been able to do any better than that, and there isn’t much evidence that their forecasts are improving” (loc. The economy is the field that receives the most attention in the book, which explains why I chose it, and not another field. Thanks very much.Hi Gary. 3322).